AMERICAN THINKER
Two prominent psephologists cautioned that some high polling results for Donald Trump among Black voters were “quirky,” given the smaller sample sizes in individual polls, and emphasized the importance of aggregating such polls, ten as a minimum, for a more accurate assessment.
Finding no such research available, I undertook what is, I believe, the first such analysis of the cumulative data from 17 current polls with a subset of Black voters, which revealed a striking, if not historical, shift in Black voting preferences toward the Republican Party, and particularly to Donald Trump.
Collated were notable polls from reputable sources, which were included in the Real Clear Politics and 538 aggregates, such as Suffolk, Siena/NYT, BigData, Fox, I&ITIPP, CBS, Emerson, and Rasmussen.
The aggregate of all 17 polls showed that 21.9% of black voters intend to vote for Donald Trump, with many individual polls showing Trump polling above 20%; for example, ActiVote had 34.4% of the black vote going to Trump.
The Trump preference range of individual polls varied from Blacks Yahoo News at 7% to HarrisX at 38%, demonstrating the importance of aggregation for a more comprehensive understanding.
Even if, on election day, it drifts back, I very much doubt it would drift back to the 12% Trump received in 2020. Even, say, 16% + stay-at-homes in the right cities would be a huge game changer.
Pollsters, somewhat bewilderingly, struggle with their own results. The highly respected I&I/TIPP poll found Blacks Trump 23% (up 4 from previous) “Concern for Democrats is Trump now holds a shocking 23% of the black vote, more than doubling his support from that key voting bloc since the last election. Add weakening support among Asian voters, Biden could be in big trouble…
