With the jury still deliberating, it’s time for those of us who have heard every minute of this trial to place our bets. My prediction is this: Donald Trump will be convicted on nine of 34 counts of falsifying business records. He’ll go down for the nine fraudulent checks he signed in the White House in 2017 — each a piece of a broader effort to falsify business records and, ultimately, to interfere unlawfully in the 2016 election.
I could easily be wrong, of course, but here’s my reasoning. To resolve differences with a split-the-baby approach, the jury might decide that Trump’s fingerprints are literally on those checks, while the 11 false invoices, 12 false ledger entries and two false checks signed by Donald Jr. and Eric are not as closely connected to Trump, though he was the one who caused the falsification of all of them.
Jurors are showing commendable signs of diligence. It would have hurt the credibility of their verdict had they returned with one too soon on Wednesday, the day they began deliberating. On Thursday morning they reheard portions of the judge’s instructions and many pages of important trial testimony. No one has any idea if they will ask to hear more.
I think Trump deserves to be convicted on all 34 counts. But reasonable jurors could legitimately conclude that they are more comfortable with nine.
And if they reach that outcome, it could have a political effect. A conviction on fewer counts would be the best possible outcome for the country, demonstrating that the jury was unbiased and carefully considered each count, dismissing most of them.
If convicted, Trump is unlikely to win on appeal. Justice Juan Merchan has dotted his i’s and crossed his t’s, making an immediate reversal a long shot. Federal courts, including the Supreme Court, probably won’t want to get involved, and if they did, it wouldn’t be until months or years after the election.
So Trump will spend the rest of his life attacking the verdict, the judge, the prosecutors and the fair-minded residents of his hometown who determined his fate.
But at least it will be a little harder for him to spew his venom if the jury thoughtfully studies the evidence and clears him on 25 counts. His base won’t care, but I have faith that at least some swing voters who respect our jury system will conclude that this man is a criminal who should not be returned to power. Will that be enough at the margins to tip the election? No one knows for sure.
But we do know that this would probably be the only conviction of Trump before November. A careful jury verdict could help build a constituency to keep a felon out of the White House.
