Certain Democrats trying to cope with President Biden’s continually underwhelming 2024 poll numbers share an article of faith: the ceiling theory.
All Biden needs to do is rally allies who are unenthusiastic about him — particularly young, Black and Hispanic voters — against Donald Trump. The former president’s ceiling, after all, has proved to be low; he didn’t crack 47 percent in either the 2016 or the 2020 election. And Biden has shown he can win a majority of the popular vote.
There is some truth in that. But it overlooks something important that hasn’t gotten much attention: Polls show that Biden’s ceiling actually appears to be lower than Trump’s.
While much has been made of “Never Trump” Republicans, “Never Biden” voters appear to loom even larger — at least for now.
Back in 2020, it was the opposite. Whenever the question was asked, the percentage saying they’d never vote for Trump outpaced the “Never Biden” contingent by double digits.
Often, at least 50 percent of voters said not only that they weren’t voting for Trump, but that there was no chance they would. At most, just 4 in 10 said the same of Biden.
In 2020, significantly more voters said no chance they’d vote for Trump …
Percentage saying there was no chance they’d vote for each candidate
That’s now flipped.
The most recent poll to show this is Monday’s New York Times-Siena College poll of six key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Across those states, 46 percent of registered voters said there was no chance they’d vote for Trump, while 52 percent said the same of Biden.
That’s the biggest gap to date, including an earlier Times poll and CNN polling as recently as last month. But even with smaller gaps, every such poll in recent months has shown more “Never Biden” voters than “Never Trump” ones.
