Even with under five months left to go until Election Day, the electoral calendar is nearly devoid of marquee chances for this year’s presidential race to change in a major way.
There are the two party nominating conventions, with the Republican confab in July likely coinciding with a vice presidential pick from Donald Trump. The former president also is set to be sentenced next month after being convicted of 34 felony counts in his hush money trail in New York. Beyond that, there are few concrete events with the potential to move an electoral needle that has refused to budge for months beyond the margins.
That’s where this week’s debate comes in.
While operatives who spoke to ABC News were torn over how much Thursday’s head-to-head matchup could alter the fundamentals of a race between a former and current president — both with virtually universal name recognition — all agreed that the debate represents one of just a few foreseeable instances for the candidates to at least try to improve their fortunes.
“If you’re looking at the calendar for the next five months, this is one of those moments. And somebody’s going to take advantage of it,” said Chip Saltsman, a GOP strategist who worked on former Vice President Mike Pence’s now-suspended GOP presidential bid.
Already, recent history has failed to budge close polling numbers by more than a few points. Trump’s felony conviction led to only marginal fluctuations. The felony conviction of President Joe Biden’s son Hunter on gun charges already has largely dropped out of the news cycle.
The current 538 national polling average of the race shows a virtual tie, but some polls show Trump with a wide advantage in key battleground states.
