Saudi Arabia is becoming one of Biden’s most important swing states

NEWSWEEK

By Tom O’Connor

As President Joe Biden prepares to fight for reelection this November across a contentious battleground of U.S. states, the White House also finds itself vying for influence among several increasingly critical players on the world stage, among them a long-standing partner in the midst of groundbreaking changes in its policies at home and abroad.

At just 38 years old, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s youngest de facto heads of state and is the driving force behind a nationalist agenda that is taking hold in the kingdom. His father, 88-year-old King Salman, has led since 2015 but has increasingly handed over control to his seventh son since naming him next to rule in 2017 and prime minister in 2022, particularly amid growing concerns over the monarch’s health.

The transformation overseen by Crown Prince Mohammed, often referred to simply as MbS, has led to substantial shifts in the kingdom’s domestic outlook, which has embraced a more globalized character and a transition away from oil dependence, among other initiatives in line with the youngest-ever heir to the throne’s ambitious Vision 2030 plan. It’s also prompted a recalibration of foreign relations and the pursuit of more robust ties with other leading powers, including top U.S. rivals China and Russia.

Though officials in Riyadh and Washington continue to emphasize the importance of their partnership, recent rifts and painstaking negotiations currently taking place over the future of their cooperation have raised serious questions regarding the fate of one of the U.S.’ most strategic footholds in the Middle East.

Ali al-Shihabi, a Saudi political expert who founded the Arabia Foundation think tank and now serves on the advisory board of NEOM, one of several futuristic “megaprojects” outlined in Vision 2030, identified two primary factors behind the kingdom’s balancing act on international relations.

“One is the increasing importance of China as the single largest importer of Saudi oil and a partner that is willing to supply Saudi with arms and technology with no conditions attached,” Shihabi told Newsweek. “The second is the perceived unreliability of the relationship with the U.S. that can fluctuate dramatically depending on political currents in D.C., so Saudi feels it has to spread its chips.”

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