THE HILL
The looming November rematch between President Biden and former President Trump could be decided by just a handful of states.
Six months out from Election Day, all eyes are on seven toss-up states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — where 93 electoral votes will be up for grabs this fall.
Biden won all but North Carolina back in 2020, but recent polling suggests Trump has an edge over the incumbent in several of those battlegrounds this cycle.
The race for the White House could come down to these swing states:
Arizona
Biden won Arizona last cycle by roughly a third of a percentage point, making it the first Democratic presidential win in the Republican stronghold since the ’90s.
But Trump is now up roughly 6 points over Biden in Arizona, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill averages, where issues surrounding the border are set to play a key role in November.
Meanwhile, Democrats are looking to the Grand Canyon State, where 11 electoral college votes are up for grabs, as one of several places where issues around reproductive rights could fuel turnout to boost the party.
The state just repealed a Civil War-era, near-total abortion ban, and organizers are working to get a measure on the ballot that would enshrine protections for the procedure.
Republicans make up the biggest group of registered Arizona voters, but voters unaffiliated with either major party outnumber Democrats in the state, according to voter registration statistics from last month.
Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic Senate candidate in the state, is leading his Republican rival Kari Lake in the closely watched race to replace Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and running ahead of Biden, according to New York Times polling. Gallego scored 45 percent to Lake’s 41 percent, while Biden brought in 42 percent to Trump’s 49 percent.
Georgia
Biden flipped Georgia blue for the first time in decades back in 2020, beating Trump by fewer than 12,000 votes.
But as the pair ready for a rematch in the Peach State, the 2024 race lacks marquee down-ballot races and signs of big turnout that helped boost Biden four years ago.
There are 16 electoral votes on Georgia’s table in November, and polling averages from DDHQ/The Hill put Trump up around 6 points, around 49 percent to Biden’s 43 percent.
The Times polling shows Trump with even more of an advantage, putting the Republican ahead by 10 points.
Last cycle, Georgians surged to the polls to elect Democrat Jon Ossoff as the state’s first Jewish senator and the Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) as the state’s first Black senator.
This year, the Republican primary saw double the turnout of the Democratic contest, and Biden will need to energize the state’s significant Black population amid signs that he’s struggling with the bloc nationwide.
Former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R), who’s one of a few prominent Republicans backing Biden in November, has called for fellow Republicans not to “fall in line” with Trump. But it’s unclear if Biden will be able to repeat his success in the Peach State this November.
Michigan
In Michigan, a battleground Biden won by nearly 3 points back in 2020, the incumbent saw a significant protest vote push in the Democratic primary from progressives and Arab Americans, which inspired similar ballot-box boycotts in other states, like Wisconsin.
